is Russia winning or losing?

@sdkman said in #8:
> Switching to green energy sources will cost a lot, and is dependent also on weather, it isn't achievable as of now but rather as a long term goal I would say?
> Nuclear energy and other providers
> For the other providers they are going to use the opportunity naturally and have the prices rise which isn't in Europe advantage although nuclear energy might be the best solution

Well, let's pretend not switching was not involving this:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality

@four_legs_good said in #9:
> @sdkman you said they are failing. I am not asking you for an economico-political of whether transition towards renewable energy is feasible in the near future, but evidences that European energy plans to replace Russia are failing.
They did replace the gas by importing from other places but for how long?

@sdkman said in #1:
> Putin said they would win in a few days but for now it is 2 or 3 years an nothing new
> Although European energy plans to replace Russia are failing, the USA also isn't as helping Ukraine as it used to
> So who is winning

I'm pretty sure Russia will run out of steam eventually. It takes a lot of effort to fight when you only have a few countries on your side and a lot of countries not on your side.

Just because the USA isn't giving as much money as they used to doesn't mean Ukraine will lose, but I don't know :)

@four_legs_good said in #13:
> I don't know. Is it failing now though?
It depends on your definition of failing
They replaced the gas temporarily but they will lose a lot of money
So it depends, is that a failure or a success

@greenteakitten said in #14:
> I'm pretty sure Russia will run out of steam eventually. It takes a lot of effort to fight when you only have a few countries on your side and a lot of countries not on your side.
Russia has the number
They pay their solders well and for the mercenaries they get a lot of benefits from fighting for them. They also have equipment and can feed their own people for the most part and have natural resources in general, they can pretty much live up the sanctions easly.
They are allied with China one of the biggest economical forces and have nuclear (they ain't using it lol)
Generally speaking Russia isn't going to lose because no matter what even if Ukraine wins they can live it up
> Just because the USA isn't giving as much money as they used to doesn't mean Ukraine will lose, but I don't know :)
It doesn't mean that they will lose but it also means it will be harder for them

@sdkman
China has a big economy but that's also because the rest of the world buys from them. No buyers = economy suffers.
I think the sanctions will eventually take a toll on Russia.

@sdkman said in #16:
> Russia has the number
> They pay their solders well and for the mercenaries they get a lot of benefits from fighting for them. They also have equipment and can feed their own people for the most part and have natural resources in general, they can pretty much live up the sanctions easly.
> They are allied with China one of the biggest economical forces and have nuclear (they ain't using it lol)
> Generally speaking Russia isn't going to lose because no matter what even if Ukraine wins they can live it up
>
> It doesn't mean that they will lose but it also means it will be harder for them
What's really a win for Russia? Their economy is at about 2007 levels lol

The true costs of this war to the country are much more than that - they have scarred a whole generation of young Russians - they almost were coup'd by their own mercenary group, Russia maintains a great appearance of stability and control through fear... but things underneath are starting to tear at the seams.

At Russia's current rate of progress, they should be able to declare victory on their terms in about another hundred years.

Yeah to be honest its hard to tell I worry Russia will keep conscripting their way to victory. But the fact they haven't just conscripted a million to end the war by now suggests it is not so easy politically and maybe Putin is worried about the reaction back home. And even if they could presumably the training will be the same crappy soviet training that has led to all the "meat wave" attacks up until now.

If so then that is very good news for Ukraine, because they can probably last long enough to keep pushing back especially with the F16s they are being supplied with and the ramp up in weaponry from all their European allies especially Germany. They always said air superiority is a huge factor, now that they have it...I really wonder what kind of damage they can do to Russia. In theory knock out their artillery, who knows. Like you can have all the infantry in the world but Russia can't replace tanks and artillery that fast especially with sanctions. I think they have lost more than half their tanks and we know they are fielding ancient ones from the cold war like the T-62 (hello world of tanks haha). So...that also looks really good for Ukraine.

Also Ukraine is supposed to be receiving some massive shipment of GLSDBs from the USA, this incredible long-range glide bomb artillery, I just never heard about whether it finally got delivered or not. But overall I think I have more reasons to feel positive about Ukraine than Russia. USA may be wishy washy with the crazed Republican party, but Europe is steadfast supporter because they don't want Russia to encroach further into Europe. So I feel if you have all of Europe on one side, Ukraine is likely to win.