Michal Walusza
StaChesstics' FIDE Candidates Tournament 2024 Halfway Update
Explore insightful analysis of the FIDE Candidates tournament through the lens of StaChesstics AI model
We're halfway through the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2024, and chess fans are thrilled. In this article, we'll look at some stats and insights using our AI model, StaChesstics AI, to understand how the tournament is going so far.
Overview of the Tournament
After 7 rounds, Ian Nepomniachtchi is leading the tournament with 4.5 points (+2). Here are the current standings:
| Rnk. | Player | Rating | Games | W | D | L | Points | TB1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nepomniachtchi, Ian | 2758 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4.5 | 14.75 |
| 2 | Gukesh D, | 2743 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13.75 |
| 3 | Caruana, Fabiano | 2803 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Praggnanandhaa R, | 2747 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12.75 |
| 5 | Nakamura, Hikaru | 2789 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3.5 | 11.75 |
| 6 | Santosh, Gujrathi Vidit | 2727 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3.5 | 11 |
| 7 | Firouzja, Alireza | 2760 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2.5 | 9 |
| 8 | Abasov, Nijat | 2632 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
Let’s have a look at the odds and predictions of our model before the start of the tournament. According to our model, At the start of the tournament, the odds favored Fabiano Caruana, with a 23.39% chance of finishing first and a 12.22% chance of sharing first place. Here are the odds at the beginning of the tournament:
| Nr | Fide ID | Name | Rating | First | Shared First | Second | Third |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2020009 | Caruana, Fabiano | 2803 | 23.39% | 12.22% | 15.51% | 15.00% |
| 2 | 2016192 | Nakamura, Hikaru | 2789 | 17.62% | 10.77% | 14.98% | 15.71% |
| 3 | 12573981 | Firouzja, Alireza | 2760 | 9.20% | 7.33% | 11.02% | 14.25% |
| 4 | 4168119 | Nepomniachtchi, Ian | 2758 | 8.60% | 7.02% | 10.59% | 13.94% |
| 5 | 25059530 | Praggnanandhaa R, | 2747 | 6.94% | 6.03% | 9.12% | 12.73% |
| 6 | 46616543 | Gukesh D, | 2743 | 6.65% | 5.82% | 8.81% | 12.42% |
| 7 | 5029465 | Santosh, Gujrathi Vidit | 2727 | 3.91% | 4.01% | 6.32% | 9.86% |
| 8 | 13402960 | Abasov, Nijat | 2632 | 0.11% | 0.22% | 0.42% | 1.02% |
However, Ian Nepomniachtchi, who had an 8.60% chance of winning initially, has taken the lead at the halfway point with a 30.23% chance of winning and an 18.64% chance of sharing first place:
| Nr | Fide ID | Name | Rating | First | Shared First | Second | Third |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4168119 | Nepomniachtchi, Ian | 2758 | 30.23% | 18.64% | 15.85% | 14.16% |
| 2 | 2020009 | Caruana, Fabiano | 2803 | 15.86% | 14.85% | 14.69% | 17.46% |
| 3 | 25059530 | Praggnanandhaa R, | 2747 | 10.45% | 11.74% | 11.70% | 16.61% |
| 4 | 46616543 | Gukesh D, | 2743 | 6.71% | 8.94% | 12.59% | 16.76% |
| 5 | 2016192 | Nakamura, Hikaru | 2789 | 5.75% | 8.49% | 11.18% | 16.12% |
| 6 | 5029465 | Santosh, Gujrathi Vidit | 2727 | 2.04% | 3.98% | 4.71% | 9.08% |
| 7 | 12573981 | Firouzja, Alireza | 2760 | 0.12% | 0.48% | 0.86% | 2.22% |
| 8 | 13402960 | Abasov, Nijat | 2632 | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
At the start of the tournament, the chance of someone winning the tournament outright was approximately 76.42%. However, with the current standings and updated odds, this number has decreased to about 71.16%. This decrease suggests that there is now a higher likelihood of tie-break games to determine the ultimate winner.
Here's a comparison of the initial odds and the current odds for the players:
| Player | Rating | Live Rating | Gained Rating | Change in Chances for First (%) | Change in Chances for Shared First (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Nepomniachtchi | 2758 | 2766 | +8 | +21.63 | +11.62 |
| Fabiano Caruana | 2803 | 2801 | -2 | -7.53 | +2.63 |
| Praggnanandhaa R | 2747 | 2751 | +4 | +3.51 | +5.71 |
| Gukesh D | 2743 | 2747 | +4 | +0.06 | +3.12 |
| Nakamura, Hikaru | 2789 | 2784 | -5 | -11.87 | -2.28 |
| Santosh, Gujrathi Vidit | 2727 | 2728 | +1 | -1.87 | -0.03 |
| Alireza Firouzja | 2760 | 2748 | -12 | -9.08 | -6.85 |
| Abasov, Nijat | 2632 | 2629 | -3 | < 0 | < 0 |
Tournament Upsets
Even though we haven't witnessed any major surprises yet, we can get one as soon as Abasov wins a game. Nevertheless, based on our calculations, we've noticed four unexpected results. The most surprising was Hikaru's game against Vidit, where he made an opening blunder early on and lost even though he was playing with the white pieces. Our model rates this match as the biggest surprise of the tournament so far, with a 0.63 upset rating.
| Round | White | Actual Result | Black | White Win | Draw | Black Win | Upset Metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nakamura, Hikaru | 0 - 1 | Santosh, Gujrathi Vidit | 36% | 55% | 9% | 0.63 |
| 2 | Praggnanandhaa R, | 0 - 1 | Gukesh D, | 26% | 60% | 14% | 0.56 |
| 3 | Santosh, Gujrathi Vidit | 0 - 1 | Praggnanandhaa R, | 23% | 63% | 14% | 0.55 |
| 5 | Firouzja, Alireza | 0 - 1 | Nakamura, Hikaru | 21% | 66% | 14% | 0.54 |
As we look ahead to the rest of the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2024, every move becomes crucial. You can get updated odds and more stats on our website https://stachesstics.com. If you want more stats or have any thoughts, let us know! We're here to listen. Your feedback helps us get better and give you what you need. Thanks for being with us